Beter nieuws
Gezond verstand heeft de laatste dagen wat kleine overwinningen geboekt:
“U.N. Body Warns of Risks of Global Austerity – The global economy faces a
decade-long stagnation because governments are pursuing deficit cuts and
other austerity measures rather than providing the needed stimulus packages,
said a United Nations economic report released Tuesday. Instead of new
regulation of the financial system to address the problems that helped bring
on the recession in 2007-8, governments in the United States and Europe are
trying to woo the very speculators who helped cause the problem, said the
report by the Geneva-based United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development, which is known by its acronym, Unctad.
“Those who support
fiscal tightening argue that it is indispensable for restoring the
confidence of financial markets, which is perceived as key to economic
recovery,” the report said. “This is despite the almost universal
recognition that the crisis was the result of financial market failure in
the first place.” The report criticized the austerity measures as producing
results exactly opposite their intended effect.” Directe link tot het
rapport hier
.
Vandaag wijst Martin
Wolf in de FT erop dat ook de markten om “borrow en spend” vragen –“
Martin Wolf: We must listen to what bond markets are telling us – What is to
be done? To find an answer, listen to the markets, the FT columnist says.
They are saying: borrow and spend, please. Yet those who profess faith in
the magic of the markets are most determined to ignore the cry. The fiscal
skies are falling, they insist. But as Richard Koo of Nomura Research has
argued, fiscal deficits help the private sector deleverage. That is
precisely what is happening in the US and UK.”
En we weten het nog niet officieel, maar als je in Washington iets voor elkaar
wilt krijgen, dan moet je lobbyen – en dus lekt
er wel eens een plan uit: “Obama Said to Seek More Than $300 Billion
Package to Boost Jobs – President Barack Obama plans to propose sparking job
growth by injecting more than $300 billion into the economy next year,
mostly through tax cuts, infrastructure spending and direct aid to state and
local governments. Obama will call on Congress to offset the cost of the
short-term jobs measures by raising tax revenue in later years.”
De details zijn nog niet bekend, maar infrastructuur en federale steun aan de
staten lijken me een goed plan. Die belasting verlagen en dan weer verhogen
lijkt me een typisch politiek compromis – qua stimulans heeft het weinig
zin, en de meeste bang for the buck krijg je door de belastingverdeling aan
te passen (dus: de Bush tax cuts te laten aflopen).
Dan de grootte, die USD300 miljard: of die voldoende is hangt o.a. af van je
schatting van de
‘output gap’ en wat andere variabelen. Met een USD 15,000
miljard economie als die van de VS spreek je al snel over grote bedragen –
en op dit moment is de economie er hard aan toe.
Tegengeluiden
Wat zijn de tegengeluiden vandaag? De banken zullen niet altijd gelukkig zijn
met de stimulans. Bill Gross waarschuwt daarvoor: ‘Helicopter Ben’ risks destroying
credit creation'
En die strengere regels, daar zijn de banken
ook niet blij mee: “Bank rules could hurt world economy - lobby group --
New banking regulations being implemented around the world could
significantly slow economic growth and hurt job creation, according to a
report released on Tuesday by a lobbying group that represents international
banks. Economic output could be 3.2 percent lower by 2015 than would
otherwise be the case if rules such as tougher capital standards were not
put in place, according to the Institute of International Finance, a
Washington-based global banking lobby that represents more than 400 of the
world's biggest banks. This would lead to 7.5 million fewer jobs being
created over that time frame in the countries covered by the study, IIF
said.”
Het IIF rapport is hier
te vinden. Ik heb het nog niet kunnen lezen, maar ik ben benieuwd naar de
motivatie van de schattingen.
Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en
verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research.
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